Data Source: U.S.A. D.O.E. E.I A psw17.xls, February 27, 2008 $10 Gasoline & Rising Inflation, The Trend of the Future by Aaron Wissner, March 1, 2008 - http://valuesystem.livejournal.com/

The Hubbert curve projects the rate of oil production over time. It was first proposed by geophysicist M. King Hubbert in the mid 1950s during his tenure at the Shell Oil Company. The curve shows oil production which is determined by the rate of new oil well discovery. The steepness of the projected rate of production decline is alarming because it indicates that global oil production will fall so fast that there may not be enough time to develop other sources of energy to replace oil. This, coupled with normal human complacency, has the potential to destroy the world economy in an energy-driven depression. The current era of cheap oil may be seen as a golden age by future generations.

Source: http://trinifar.wordpress.com/2007/12/10/modeling-the-future/

The above figure, Total Energy Use, has all the energy production curves added together to show the overall shape of total world energy consumption. This chart aggregates all the rises, peaks and declines to give a sense of the complete energy picture. The graph shows a strong peak about 2020, with an ongoing decline out to 2050. The main reason for the decline is the loss of oil and gas. The decline is cushioned by an increase in hydro and renewables over the middle of the century, and averages out to 1% per year.

Note Added: This graph shows vividly that even if ALL energy sources are taken into account, total future energy production trends towards decline. The outlook portrayed by this projection is pessimistic because it assumes a "business-as-usual" scenario. Growth of energy consumption is tightly constricted by production of current energy sectors. Little or no growth is attributed to alternative energy. The message of this projection is that every available energy source must be brought online as rapidly as possible, and even then it may not be enough to avoid severe energy shortages and high energy prices.

Lawrence Livermore National Laboratories

Conservation is a key component of nearly all energy policies and proposals as it should be. In the past the economy benefitted greatly by conservation and incremental improvments in efficiency without any fundamental shift in energy production. That era will soon end, however.

While conservation definitely has a place for the near future, there are two fundamental limits to effective conservation that doom such efforts in the longer term. The first concerns the exponentially increasing cost and difficulty of achieving savings as each increment of waste is wrung out of the system. The other is the limit imposed by the law of diminishing returns.

The figure above shows flow of energy through the U.S. economy from all sources. This chart demonstrates that although energy conservation can still improve the overall energy outlook by reducing losses, useful energy is already a substantial fraction of total energy. Conservation acts to reduce the portion shown as losses. Even if there were no issues of cost and difficulty in achieving conservation goals, once the 50% turnover point is reached, conservation plays an ever diminishing role in the long term energy picture.

Even with all possible conservation strategies, increases in energy supplies will be vital because world energy consumption is increasing rapidly, far beyond the limits to conservation.

World energy demand is conservatively shown on the chart above. Many projections show a linear or even exponential increase. This graph factors in likely changes in global population and the resulting impact on energy consumption.

Like many other projections, this one shows oil and gas production declining inexorably after about 2025. All other sectors of energy production are shown expanding dramatically to support even this low rate of energy consumption growth.

The largest growth is shown in the alternative energy sector - solar, wind and geothermal. The projection does not factor in uncertainties in regard to the long term growth of coal because of policies arising from current efforts to deal with global climate change which may restrict its use.