The Rise of Solar Energy  
 

 

Solar Electric (PV) Growth

Source: http://www1.eere.energy.gov/solar/initiatives.html

U.S. Department of Energy Solar Energy Technologies Program
 
Solar energy is very promising due to its impressive growth. According to solarbuzz.com, solar electric demand (photovoltaic) has grown consistently by 20-25 % each year over the past 20 years. Notice that the turnover point where market penetration becomes exponential occurs between 2012 and 2015. These numbers show that performance projections for this market in many future energy assessments are far too conservative. Such projections are usually based on past growth during the early phases of solar development that are not representative of the potential of a maturing market.

Source: http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/3528

Our Energy Future in Wind and Solar

This chart shows the characteristic rise, peak and fall of fossil fuel production after 2020 due to production cost increases, depletion of resources and environmental constraints. The projected growth of the solar industry (which includes wind) is explosive after 2015. The rise of solar options becomes exponential as the technology matures and costs fall to levels below that of traditional energy sources. The early stages of this energy revolution are already in evidence with massive wind generation construction and utility solar thermal projects already underway.

Comparative Solar Availability

Source: Earth Energy Potential, March 28, 2008

http://infinitystudies.wordpress.com/2008/03/28/malthus-applied-

to-human-energy-consumption/earth-energy-potential/

The earth receives 174,000 terawatts (one terawatt equals 1 trillion watts), or 174 petawatts of energy from the sun at any given moment.

The earth's surface recieves 89,000 terawatts of solar energy after passage through the atmosphere. This constitutes about 51% of the energy reaching the earth from the sun.

An additional 370 terawatts is available from wind power. (wind is a form of solar energy) As large as this is, it is only about 2 hundredths of 1 percent (.02%) of the total .

By comparison, the current energy consumption of the world is "only" 15 terawatts.

It is easy to see that humanity has only been tapping a tiny fraction of the energy readily available to us. Once we convert to solar in it's various forms, energy shortages will be found only in historical records.

 
Source: Solar PV Industry Outlook
http://www.semiconductor.net/article/CA6526670.html
 
 

Recent trends in large scale utility generating facilities have favored solar thermal technology because of temporary cost advantages and technical similarities with traditional gas-fired electric generating stations. Current storage technology prices also favor solar thermal for generating plants operating on a near 100% duty cycle.

Photovoltaics remains the clear choice for small scale solar electric installations and unmanned utility-grade solar generating facilities where reliability and low maintenance are key factors. The maturing PV market will reach price convergence with fossil fuels sometime between 2012 and 2015. At that point market penetration "takes off" and demand for solar PV becomes explosive. All segments of the PV market will experience large growth increases as downward price pressures begin to drive fossil fuels from the power generating market while at the same time triggering an explosion in demand.

These trends, in concert with dwindling supplies after 2020, doom fossil fuels as the quarter-century mark approaches. Social pressure for renewables will also play a role as the climate change issue continues to gather momentum.